{"id":3102,"date":"2022-06-22T16:19:31","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T16:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/heliosrealestate.com\/?p=3102"},"modified":"2022-08-16T18:11:43","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T18:11:43","slug":"captains-blog-post-covid-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/heliosrealestate.com\/de\/captains-blog-post-covid-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Blog des Kapit\u00e4ns - Post-COVID-Wirtschaft"},"content":{"rendered":"

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VERFASST VON:<\/h6>\n

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GEPOSTET AM:<\/h6>\n

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TAGS:<\/h6>\n

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Vor einigen Monaten sprachen wir in einem Beitrag f\u00fcr Property Week \u00fcber das kommende Jahr \u00fcber die Inflation und die Probleme, die sie f\u00fcr Bauunternehmer verursachen w\u00fcrde, die etwas bauen wollen. Wir wussten, dass dies ein Problem sein w\u00fcrde, aber keiner von uns konnte vorhersehen, wie sehr es zu einem Problem werden w\u00fcrde. Es ist heute schwierig, einen guten Preis von einem Bauunternehmer zu bekommen, und ein Festpreis ist ein ferner Traum. Nat\u00fcrlich hat der Krieg enorme Auswirkungen, aber er ist nicht der einzige Faktor. Die Schattenseiten des QE-Programms (oder quantitativen Lockerungsprogramms) der Regierung sind viel diskutiert worden, aber im Grunde genommen ist es unm\u00f6glich, so viel Geld in die Wirtschaft zu pumpen, ohne eine Inflation zu riskieren. Zu viel Geld f\u00fcr zu wenig G\u00fcter ist die klassische Definition. Was haben wir also erwartet, wenn die Produktion nicht entsprechend gestiegen ist? Erw\u00e4hnenswert ist auch die enorme Verschwendung, die mit dem Versuch der Regierung einherging, COVID zu kontrollieren. Wir haben alle von den Milliarden von Pfund an unbrauchbarer PSA gelesen, die verbrannt oder anderweitig entsorgt wurden, und w\u00e4hrend der gesamten Pandemie wurden riesige Geldbetr\u00e4ge in das Problem gesteckt, oft in einer Art Schie\u00dfbudenprinzip, ohne dass wirklich gr\u00fcndliche \u00dcberlegungen angestellt wurden. Bemerkenswerterweise wurde der j\u00fcngste Einbruch des Wirtschaftswachstums zum Teil auf die R\u00fccknahme der COVID-Tests zur\u00fcckgef\u00fchrt. Welche Art von Wirtschaft verl\u00e4sst sich auf so etwas?<\/span><\/p>\n

Milliarden von Pfund sind in das System geflossen, und wir sehen uns nun den Folgen der Inflation gegen\u00fcber. Die Regierung ist nun wieder in Aktion getreten, indem sie den Haushalten Geld in Form von Zusch\u00fcssen zukommen l\u00e4sst. Sogar an die reichen Haushalte! Es scheint oft, dass die einzige Antwort auf ein Problem darin besteht, es mit Geld zu bewerfen. Wenn die Inflation erst einmal da ist, ist es schwierig, sie wieder loszuwerden. Ich erwarte nicht, dass wir das Weimarer Niveau erreichen, bei dem Banknoten in Schubkarren transportiert werden, aber es wird f\u00fcr einige Zeit ein Problem sein. Ein f\u00fchrender Wirtschaftswissenschaftler sagte k\u00fcrzlich voraus, dass die derzeitigen zweistelligen Raten auf etwa 4% zur\u00fcckgehen werden, was ein Ergebnis w\u00e4re. \u00dcber den Zeitpunkt war er sich weniger sicher.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meiner Ansicht nach wird es 18 Monate dauern, bis dies der Fall ist. Bis dahin wird die Wirtschaft besch\u00e4digt sein und das Leben vieler Menschen wird ganz anders aussehen. Derzeit ist die Arbeitslosigkeit niedrig - technisch gesehen haben wir Vollbesch\u00e4ftigung, d.h. die Zahl der offenen Stellen ist gr\u00f6\u00dfer als die Zahl der Arbeitslosen. Ein R\u00fcckgang der Wirtschaftsleistung und der Investitionen zusammen mit einer sinkenden Kaufkraft wird das \u00e4ndern, denke ich. Letzten Endes m\u00fcssen wir auf die Gesetze von Angebot und Nachfrage vertrauen, die ohne \u00e4u\u00dfere Einfl\u00fcsse dazu neigen, die Dinge auszugleichen. Es ist der Teil der \u00e4u\u00dferen Einfl\u00fcsse, der hier beunruhigend ist.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alles in allem f\u00fchlt sich die Wirtschaft jetzt unnat\u00fcrlich an. Eine hohe Inflation bei einer Arbeitslosigkeit von Null wird von \u00d6konomen mit der Philips-Kurve erkl\u00e4rt, die besagt, dass die Inflation bei niedriger Arbeitslosigkeit tendenziell hoch ist, da die L\u00f6hne nach oben getrieben werden. Was wir bisher gesehen haben, ist jedoch, dass die Inflation durch andere externe Faktoren nach oben getrieben wird. Es gen\u00fcgt, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit schleichend ansteigt, was sehr wahrscheinlich ist, und wir haben die gef\u00fcrchtete Stagflation, bei der die Inflation hoch, das Wirtschaftswachstum niedrig oder negativ und die Arbeitslosigkeit steigend ist. F\u00fcr die Wirtschaftswissenschaftler ist dies die schlimmste aller Welten.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ein weiterer Beweis f\u00fcr dieses unnat\u00fcrliche Gef\u00fchl sind die Menschen, die auf Lebensmittelbanken zur\u00fcckgreifen, w\u00e4hrend selbst billige Gebrauchtwagen aufgrund der Nachfrage im Wert steigen. Die Hauspreise steigen immer noch (wenn auch langsamer), selbst wenn die Hypothekenzinsen steigen. Die Nachfrage nach Auslandsurlauben und Ferienaufenthalten ist trotz hoher Preise so hoch wie nie zuvor, doch die Supermarktchefs verzeichnen ein massiv ver\u00e4ndertes Ausgabeverhalten. Malcolm Walker, Chef von Iceland Stores, berichtet, dass es nicht un\u00fcblich ist, dass Kunden die Verk\u00e4ufer bitten, \"mit dem Scannen aufzuh\u00f6ren, wenn ich 40 Pfund erreiche\". Es ist etwas Merkw\u00fcrdiges am Werk, wenn bestimmte Sektoren boomen, w\u00e4hrend viele Menschen sich kein Essen leisten k\u00f6nnen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In der Tat seltsame Zeiten.<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/b><\/p>\n

DURHAM <\/b>- Carter House, Pelaw Leazes Lane, Durham City, DH1 1TB\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WIEN <\/b>- Kohlmarkt 1\/10, 1010 Wien, \u00d6sterreich\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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