{"id":3024,"date":"2022-02-11T14:21:49","date_gmt":"2022-02-11T14:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/heliosrealestate.com\/?p=3024"},"modified":"2022-08-16T18:11:32","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T18:11:32","slug":"captains-blog-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/heliosrealestate.com\/de\/captains-blog-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Blog des Kapit\u00e4ns - Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

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VERFASST VON:<\/h6>\n

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GEPOSTET AM:<\/h6>\n

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TAGS:<\/h6>\n

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Seit Monaten, wenn nicht gar Jahren, h\u00f6ren wir, dass die Inflation vor der T\u00fcr steht. Die klassische Definition lautet \"zu viel Geld f\u00fcr zu wenig Waren\", was ziemlich genau die Situation beschreibt, in der wir uns jetzt befinden. Das Programm der Regierung zur quantitativen Lockerung bedeutete im Wesentlichen, dass Geld in die Wirtschaft gepumpt wurde, ohne dass es zu einer entsprechenden Steigerung der Produktion kam. COVID und Brexit haben gemeinsam das Angebot an Materialien und Arbeitskr\u00e4ften eingeschr\u00e4nkt, so dass der Teil \"zu wenig Waren\" hinzukommt. Alles, was wir brauchten, war ein Nachfrageschub, um den perfekten Sturm heraufzubeschw\u00f6ren, und genau hier hat die Regierung wieder eingegriffen, indem sie versucht hat, sich mit der Umsetzung gro\u00dfer Infrastrukturprojekte, der Finanzierung des Baus von Sekundar- und Hochschulen und der F\u00f6rderung des Wohnungsbaus durch verschiedene Kaufhilfen aus der Pandemie herauszuwinden. Als ob das nicht schon genug w\u00e4re, verlagern sich unsere Vorlieben auf den Online-Einkauf, so dass die Nachfrage nach Logistikgeb\u00e4uden in die H\u00f6he schie\u00dft und die Nachfrage nach allem, was mit Bauen zu tun hat, weiter ansteigt. Das Ergebnis ist eine ernsthafte zweistellige Inflation in unserer Branche mit oft l\u00e4hmenden Materialengp\u00e4ssen. Einige Bauprojekte sind bereits im Gange, so dass der Schmerz zwischen Bautr\u00e4ger und Bauunternehmer geteilt wird, je nachdem, wer bei der Auftragsvergabe am kl\u00fcgsten war, aber andere Projekte werden unterbrochen oder ganz gestrichen, w\u00e4hrend die Situation versucht, sich selbst zu korrigieren.<\/span><\/p>\n

Wir vermuten, dass sich die Dinge \u00e4ndern werden. Erstens f\u00fchrt die Inflation bereits zu h\u00f6heren Zinss\u00e4tzen, die sich auf die Hypothekenzinsen auswirken werden, was wiederum zu <\/span>unterdr\u00fccken.<\/span> Nachfrage nach neuen H\u00e4usern. Die Kraftstoffpreise werden ein gro\u00dfes Loch in die Haushaltsbudgets rei\u00dfen, und die h\u00f6heren Kosten f\u00fcr den Wocheneinkauf werden dazu f\u00fchren, dass die Menschen ihre Einstellung und ihre Ausgabengewohnheiten ziemlich schnell \u00e4ndern. Das wird die Nachfrage d\u00e4mpfen, was unterm Strich der Inflation entgegenwirken d\u00fcrfte. Die Regierung hat auch den QE-Hahn zugedreht (und das nicht zu fr\u00fch, wie manche meinen). In der Zwischenzeit hoffen wir, dass sich das Angebot von dem Schock nach der Pandemie erholt und die Materialien wieder reichlich vorhanden sind. Wir sollten sehen, dass die Anbieter anfangen, mehr zu konkurrieren und die wilden Preiserh\u00f6hungen, die sie weitergegeben haben, solange sie konnten, aufgeben. Wir werden auch einige positive Ver\u00e4nderungen in unserer Branche erleben, da die Bauherren und das Konstruktionsteam \u00fcberlegter vorgehen werden. Angesichts der Lieferprobleme bei Stahl und Beton versucht Helios nun, Lagerhallen mit Holzbalken zu bauen, was auch den Vorteil hat, dass es wesentlich nachhaltiger ist. Es werden immer mehr Materialien wiederverwertet, darunter auch Abbruchmaterial, das den Steinbruch f\u00fcr die Fundamente ersetzen kann. Wir befassen uns mit den grundlegenden Konstruktionsprinzipien neu, weil wir es m\u00fcssen, w\u00e4hrend wir fr\u00fcher wahrscheinlich der Tradition gefolgt w\u00e4ren.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hoffentlich k\u00f6nnen wir die Inflation gemeinsam eind\u00e4mmen, bevor sie sich selbst \u00fcberholt. Die landesweit ver\u00f6ffentlichte Rate von 7% ist be\u00e4ngstigend und liegt weit \u00fcber dem Ziel der Regierung von 2% (und der Prognose der meisten Experten von 4%), und es lohnt sich, daran zu erinnern, dass sie noch vor kurzem, im Jahr 2020, bei 0,99% lag, aber bei weitem nicht an die Spitzenwerte von 1980 heranreicht, als wir 17,99% verzeichneten. Es gibt einige ermutigende Anzeichen. Die Holzpreise in Europa gehen langsam zur\u00fcck und die Versorgung mit einigen Materialien verbessert sich. Die Kraftstoffpreise haben hoffentlich ihren H\u00f6chststand erreicht, vorausgesetzt, es kommt nicht zu einem gr\u00f6\u00dferen Krieg, und die weltweiten Schifffahrtspreise d\u00fcrften sich wieder normalisieren. Die n\u00e4chsten sechs Monate werden kritisch sein, aber wir bleiben vorsichtig optimistisch. Wenn wir es nicht w\u00e4ren, w\u00e4ren wir keine Entwickler!<\/span><\/p>\n

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DURHAM <\/b>- Carter House, Pelaw Leazes Lane, Durham City, DH1 1TB\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WIEN <\/b>- Wollzeile 16, 1010 Wien, \u00d6sterreich\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

ZAGREB <\/b>- Poslovni Park Zagreb D.O.O. Petrovaradinska 1, 10000 Zagreb, Kroatien
<\/span><\/p>\n

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