At the start of the latest pandemic \u2013 and remember there have been several over the years \u2013 many predicted that life wouldn\u2019t return to normal for two years. The Hong Kong Flu pandemic lasted from 1968 to 1970 and killed around 4 million people worldwide. Before that the Asian Flu pandemic lasted from 1957 until early 1959 with a similar number of deaths. So far COVID 19 has been with us for around 18 months (we can\u2019t be sure when it really started but it hit UK hard in March 2020) and has killed around 4.5 million. Taking into account that records kept today are more accurate than they were in the \u201850\u2019s and \u201860\u2019s and that more countries are reporting their numbers it seems that all three pandemics will have similar outcomes. That being the case we should hopefully see a return to normal in early 2022 when COVID 19 becomes a less serious threat. What lasting changes will we see and what implications have they for real estate?<\/p>\n
One thing that\u2019s immediately noticeable is that outdoor eating and drinking has become much more prevalent. Beer gardens have become semi-permanent spaces with pergolas, tee-pees and a host of other structures erected often enhancing the original venue\u2019s appeal. Table service has become more noticeable as our habits change to reflect those of our European neighbours. Pavement caf\u00e9s have sprung up on most high streets adding a degree of colour and activity which was missing before. So far so good.<\/p>\n
Shopping habits have changed and there is now an Amazon or other e-tailer warehouse on many motorway junctions employing many thousands of people. Again, so far so good. However, elsewhere there is an acute shortage of workers particularly in the service and transport sectors many of whom are working at said warehouses which offer secure and seemingly future proof employment. Yesterday McDonalds announced that it has run out of milk shakes citing a shortage of lorry drivers. Some restaurants are closed because of a shortage of staff whilst many others are running at less than full capacity. The cause of this is partly COVID related as many workers are either still furloughed or are isolating having been \u2018pinged\u2019. Brexit has also played its part with a reported 20,000 European lorry drivers having departed these shores and a huge number of service workers also missing. We can only hope that the end of furlough and perhaps a re-set of wages in those sectors will help.<\/p>\n
Logistics problems world-wide have created materials shortages because of the (COVID related) interrupted supply chain and this has led to huge spikes in prices particularly in the construction sector where steel and concrete prices have surged to previously unseen levels and some materials are simply unavailable. Developers face a tricky time in placing orders with contractors who in turn are unwilling or unable to commit to fixed prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n This COVID after-shock is almost as alarming as the initial hit brought about by lockdown. We are now faced with the dichotomy of an economy seemingly trying its hardest to bounce back from its slumber and consequent pent up demand whilst being simultaneously held down by shortages of labour and materials. This is bringing inflation into play which many have been warning about since the early days of Quantitative Easing. It seems a perfect storm may be brewing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The outlook for real estate is mixed. Housing and logistics are booming, retail and offices are stalling. Leisure and hotels don\u2019t know which way to look whilst PBSA (purpose-built student accommodation) is debating whether to build in advance of increasing student numbers or retreat because many of those students will study from home. Major tenants are demanding more breaks from landlords as power shifts inexorably form the latter to the former. Meanwhile Planning is slower than ever \u2013 \u2018because of COVID\u2019 \u2013 whilst land prices are increasing and building costs are soaring.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Financial modelling has never been such an inexact science as it is right now as inputs become mere guesswork and modellers rely more on art than science which isn\u2019t always their forte. Those who are adept at seeing truth amongst chaos will thrive whilst those who can\u2019t see the wood for the tress will fail.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][dss_masonry_gallery columns=”1″ _builder_version=”4.4.5″ images=”2866″ hover_enabled=”0″][\/dss_masonry_gallery][et_pb_post_nav in_same_term=”on” prev_text=”PREVIOUS” next_text=”NEXT” _builder_version=”4.4.5″ title_font=”|700|||||||” title_text_color=”rgba(0,0,0,0.44)” global_module=”2187″][\/et_pb_post_nav][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.4.5″ background_color=”#c7c8ca” custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_module=”1684″ saved_tabs=”all”][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_5,3_5″ _builder_version=”4.4.5″][et_pb_column type=”2_5″ _builder_version=”4.4.5″][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/heliosrealestate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/helios-light-grey-bar-logo.png” title_text=”helios-light-grey-bar-logo” url=”\/home” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.4.5″ background_enable_image=”off” background_size=”initial” background_position=”center_left”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”3_5″ _builder_version=”4.4.5″][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.4.5″ text_text_color=”#000000″ link_font=”||||||||” ul_font=”||||||||” ol_font=”||||||||” quote_font=”||||||||” header_font=”||||||||”] DURHAM <\/b>\u2013 Carter House, Pelaw Leazes Lane, Durham City, DH1 1TB\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n VIENNA <\/b>\u2013 Wollzeile 16, 1010 Wien, Austria\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n ZAGREB <\/b>\u2013 Poslovni Park Zagreb D.O.O. Petrovaradinska 1, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
<\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"2880","footnotes":""},"categories":[230],"tags":[169,183,127,180,107,159,95,47,182,181,137],"class_list":["post-2865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-captains_log","tag-commute","tag-construction","tag-covid","tag-covid19","tag-housing","tag-leisure","tag-lockdown","tag-logistics","tag-office","tag-pandemic","tag-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"\n